How do we calculate fraud vulnerability?
Our approach to assessing how financially vulnerable the NHS is to fraud.
NHSCFA assesses how financially vulnerable the current strategic priority and intelligence collection areas are to fraud. In order to achieve this the NHSCFA adopts a different approach depending on the nuances of the area. However, broadly speaking the two main ways are:
Within the SIA a consistent language has been used across thematic areas when assessing the probability and uncertainty. The ‘probability yardstick’ defines the language applied to the range.
In using the probability spectrum, the NHSCFA has taken into account, the source, the age and reliability of the material used and any extenuating factors to form the assessment. No particular weighting is attached to specific factors but rather a comprehensive approach is taken when assigning the probability and uncertainty.
|Percentage range||Likelihood of occurence|
|0% - 5%||Remote chance|
|10% - 20%||Highly unlikely|
|25% - 35%||Unlikley|
|40% - 50%||Realistic possibility|
|55% - 75%||Likely/ probable|
|80% - 90%||Highly likely|
|95% - 100%||Almost certain|
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