Probability Matrix

The Probability Matrix is used to assign a value to the likely frequency of a risk occurring.

Probability 1 2 3 4 5
Descriptor Rare Unlikely Moderate Likely Almost certain
Frequency: How often might it / does it happen? This will probably never happen or recur. Not expected to occur for years Not expected to happen or recur, but it is possible. Expected to occur at least annually Might happen or recur occasionally. expanded to occur every quater. Will probably happen or recur, but it is not a persistent issue or circumstances. Expected to occur at least monthly. Will undoubtedly happen or recur, possibly frequently. Expected to occur at least weekly.